The net payoff from building C in year 0 is $205 M and doesn't depend on whether or not AVs appear in year 5. The expected NPV from building A in year 0 is$97 M. However, the city could wait to build until year 5 when it sees what happens with AVs. If it builds C then, the year-0 NPV is $161 M. If it builds A in year 5 when AV occurs, the year-0 NPV would be very high:$568 M. On the other hand, if it builds A in year 5 when CV occurs, the year-0 NPV is \$-46 M.