Supplementary Exercises > Exhaustible and Recyclable Resources

Depletion with uncertain demand

Consider the allocation of a fixed amount of oil between two periods. The total stock of oil is know to be 2000 barrels. To keep things simple, assume the cost of extracting the oil from the ground is zero. Each period's demand for oil is identical and given by P=1500-Qi. The overall interest rate between periods is 50% (that is, treat the periods as though they were 1 year apart with an interest rate of 50%).
  1. Find the efficient allocation of oil between the two periods. What will prices be in the two periods? Draw an appropriate graph and be sure to label it completely. If this allocation does not give an equal amount of oil to each period, explain in non-technical language why.
  2. Now suppose we're not certain exactly what next period's demand will be like. In particular, suppose there's a 75% chance that period 2's demand curve will be identical to period 1's, and a 25% chance that oil will be a lot more valuable and the demand curve will instead be P=3000-Q2 (where Q2 is period 2's allocation). How much oil should period 1 use in this case? Explain why.
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Peter J Wilcoxen, The Maxwell School, Syracuse University
Revised 04/07/2006