Exhaustible and Recyclable Resources > Exploration in a one period model

Answer

  1. Efficient allocation without exploration:

    Q = 200
    P = 1000 - 2*Q
    P = 1000 - 2*200 = $600
    R = P - MEC = $600 - $300 = $300

    P = $600, R = $300, Q = 200 
  2. Minimum price to induce exploration:

    EV of drilling = 0.2*( 10*(P-$300) - $400 ) + 0.8*( - $400 )
    EV = 2*P - $600 - $80  - $320
    EV = 2*P - $1000
    Minimum price P* occurs where EV = 0

    P* = $500
  3. New equilibrium:

    P = 1000 - 2*Q
    500 = 1000 - 2*Q
    Q = 250
    R = $500 - $300 = $200

    P = $500, R = $200, Q consumed = 250 
  4. New units and wells drilled:

    New units found: 250 - 200 = 50

    Expected units for N wells: 0.2*10*N
    Wells for 50 expected units: 0.2*10*N = 50

    N = 50/2 = 25
  5. Costs, revenues and profits on exploration:

    Exploration costs: 25 wells * $400 per well = $10k
    Extraction costs on new units: 50 units * $300 = $15k
    Total costs: $10k + $15k = $25k
    Revenue on new units: $500 * 50 units = $25k 
    Economic profits on exploration: $25k - $25k = $0 
  6.  Changes in social surplus:

    Change in CS = $100*(200+250)/2 = $22,500 gain
    Change in PS on original units: -$100*200 = -$20k
    PS on newly-found units (from above) = $0
    Overall change in SS = +$22,500 - $20,000 + $0 = $2500 gain 
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Peter J Wilcoxen, The Maxwell School, Syracuse University
Revised 05/04/2014